When reality television first emerged in a big way, in the form of a poorly-devised social experiment called "Survivor," the conventional wisdom was that it wouldn't last.
Here we are a decade later, the soothsayers proven wrong. "Survivor" isn't nearly the juggernaut it once was but it still exists, along with offspring like "The Bachelor" and "American Idol."
Thankfully, scripted comedy and and drama have not gone entirely by the wayside, and writing still counts for something.
Shows like "30 Rock," "Lost" and others, have re-legitimized the work of wordsmiths, even if there is still a large appetite for trumped up game shows that are largely improvised.
One wonders if the same will be true of social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter, whose staying power I once thought limited but have proven formidable.
It's hard to find a news organization that doesn't use Facebook or Twitter to some degree, and celebrities have taken to them with a fervor once reserved for Pilates and Tae Bo.
Journalists have used Facebook and Twitter widely to connect with readers, listeners and viewers, and to get the story out first.
Getting an article to publication or to air takes time, even if publication means posting on a website. Writing and posting an update on Twitter takes seconds – in fact, if it takes more than a few seconds, you're probably doing it wrong.
This is not journalism in its highest form, but it's a valuable tool, one we're seeing used more and more and seen by some as a necessity.
The Times-Advocate is not yet on Twitter, but last week we launched a Facebook page with a level of success. Within three days we had over 150 people identify themselves as fans of the paper, and the last count before publication was 208.
Many of our fans were people I knew growing up who've moved away from the community, a group that's likely interested in the goings-on of their former hometowns but may have grown disconnected.
Social networking has its limitations, of course. A conversation through "tweets," wall posts or instant messaging doesn't hold a candle to being face-to-face.
To interact meaningfully with a person you'll likely have to pry yourself away from a computer screen. But for the time being, social networking is a large part of the way we communicate, and one imagines it's here to stay in some form.
A former colleague of mine once observed that social networking tools tend to have a short lifespan, burning brightly but briefly before being overtaken by the next big thing.
The brief reign of MySpace is evidence of that, as was the popularity of MSN Messenger.
Whether Facebook and Twitter themselves become lasting parts of our lives or get supplanted by something newer and better is something we'll have to wait to see.
But social networking in general doesn't show signs of going away soon. For better or worse it's with us, and likely with us for awhile.
